Australia’s chaotic real estate market has caused plenty of headaches for agents and home owners, but seen as a headline-grabbing opportunity for pundits to make apocalyptic predictions of house price crashes.
But thanks to the ABS, CoreLogic, Trading Economics & the RBA, we’ve collated the 5 charts, graphs and tables you need to get your head around what’s going on in the real estate market today, and make your own predictions of what’s coming next.
1. National Monthly Sales – Down 10.8%
2. Average Days On Market = 48
3. Auction Clearance Rates Lowest Since GFC
4. Fewer New Listings – More Old Listings
5. Peak Apartment Construction Has Passed
6. Monthly New Home* Sales At Record Low
(*Newly constructed homes)
7. Finance Approvals Have Fallen Significantly
8. Major Capital Vacancy Rates – Mixed
9. Major Capital Apartment Price Changes – Mixed
10. Australian Economic Snapshot – Finally, The Good News
While the other illustrative examples might be more obvious, the following snapshot from the RBA may take a little more explaining.
- Inflation is at 1.9%, which is slightly below the targeted 2% – 3%.
- We’ve reached the point of “full employment”, with a 5% unemployment rate – so wages and inflation should steadily increase.
- Wage growth was 2.1% in the previous month so with a rise to 2.3%, full employment is now kicking into effect, which will in turn effect inflation.
- Economic growth slowed from 3.4% to 2.8%, but this is reflective of lots of moving parts (trade, $AUD to $USD, etc.) so a slowdown is not necessarily terrible.
So now you have a full picture of what is happening around the market and the broader economy, and this should give you a nicer full picture.
So when you listen to an economist preach a “40% market crash”, you can look at the data and decide for yourself if there’s any merit to their words, or if it’s just a headline-grabbing attempt.